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Optimal portfolio design of energy storage devices with financial and physical right market

《能源前沿(英文)》 2022年 第16卷 第1期   页码 95-104 doi: 10.1007/s11708-021-0788-2

摘要: With the continuous development of the spot market, in the multi-stage power market environment with the day-ahead market and right market, the study associated with the portfolio of energy storage devices requires that attention should be paid to transmission congestion and power congestion. To maximize the profit of energy storage and avoid the imbalance of power supply and consumption and the risk of node price fluctuation caused by transmission congestion, this paper presents a portfolio strategy of energy storage devices with financial/physical contracts. First, the concepts of financial/physical transmission rights and financial/physical storage rights are proposed. Then, the portfolio models of financial contract and physical contract are established with the conditional value-at-risk to measure the risks. Finally, the portfolio models are verified through the test data of the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) electric power spot market, and the comparison between the risk aversion of portfolios based on financial/physical contract with the portfolio of the market without rights. The simulation results show that the portfolio models proposed in this paper can effectively avoid the risk of market price fluctuations.

关键词: portfolio     node price fluctuation     transmission right     energy storage right     risk aversion    

Can the Shanghai LNG Price Index indicate Chinese market?An econometric investigation using price discovery theory

Yeli ZENG, Cong DONG, Mikael HÖÖK, Jinhua SUN, Danyang SHI

《能源前沿(英文)》 2020年 第14卷 第4期   页码 726-739 doi: 10.1007/s11708-020-0701-4

摘要: China became the world’s second largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) importer in 2018 but has faced extremely high import costs due to a lack of bargaining power. Assessments of the Shanghai LNG Price Index, first released in 2015, are vital for improving the understanding of these cost dynamics. This paper, using the LNG price index data from the Shanghai Petroleum and Gas Exchange (SHPGX) coupled with domestic and international LNG prices from July 1, 2015 to December 31, 2018, estimates several econometric models to evaluate the long-term and short-term equilibriums of the Shanghai LNG Price Index, the responses to market information shocks and the leading or lagging relationships with LNG and alternative energy prices from other agencies. The results show that the LNG price index of the SHPGX has already exhibited a long-term equilibrium and short-term adjustment mechanisms to reflect the average price level and market movements, but the market information transparency and price discovery efficiency of the index are still inadequate. China’s LNG market is still relatively independent of other natural gas markets, and marketization reforms are under way in China. The influence of the SHPGX LNG price index on the trading decisions of market participants is expected to improve with further development of China’s LNG reforms, the formation of a natural gas entry-exit system, and the increasing liquidity of the hub.

关键词: liquefied natural gas     price index     Shanghai Petroleum and Gas Exchange     price discovery     market reforms    

Power fluctuation and power loss of wind turbines due to wind shear and tower shadow

Binrong WEN, Sha WEI, Kexiang WEI, Wenxian YANG, Zhike PENG, Fulei CHU

《机械工程前沿(英文)》 2017年 第12卷 第3期   页码 321-332 doi: 10.1007/s11465-017-0434-1

摘要:

The magnitude and stability of power output are two key indices of wind turbines. This study investigates the effects of wind shear and tower shadow on power output in terms of power fluctuation and power loss to estimate the capacity and quality of the power generated by a wind turbine. First, wind speed models, particularly the wind shear model and the tower shadow model, are described in detail. The widely accepted tower shadow model is modified in view of the cone-shaped towers of modern large-scale wind turbines. Power fluctuation and power loss due to wind shear and tower shadow are analyzed by performing theoretical calculations and case analysis within the framework of a modified version of blade element momentum theory. Results indicate that power fluctuation is mainly caused by tower shadow, whereas power loss is primarily induced by wind shear. Under steady wind conditions, power loss can be divided into wind farm loss and rotor loss. Wind farm loss is constant at 3α(3α−1)R2/(8H2). By contrast, rotor loss is strongly influenced by the wind turbine control strategies and wind speed. That is, when the wind speed is measured in a region where a variable-speed controller works, the rotor loss stabilizes around zero, but when the wind speed is measured in a region where the blade pitch controller works, the rotor loss increases as the wind speed intensifies. The results of this study can serve as a reference for accurate power estimation and strategy development to mitigate the fluctuations in aerodynamic loads and power output due to wind shear and tower shadow.

关键词: wind turbine     wind shear     tower shadow     power fluctuation     power loss    

Exploring price effects on the residential water conservation technology diffusion process: a case study

Junying CHU, Hao WANG, Can WANG

《环境科学与工程前沿(英文)》 2013年 第7卷 第5期   页码 688-698 doi: 10.1007/s11783-013-0559-3

摘要: Reforms of the water pricing management system and the establishment of a flexible water pricing system are significant for cities in northern China to tackle their critical water issues. The WATAP (Water conservation Technology Adoption Processes) model is developed in order to capture the water conservation technology adoption process under different price scenarios with disaggregate water demands down to the end use level. This model is explicitly characterized by the technological selection process under maximum marginal benefit assumption by different categories of households. In particular, when households need to purchase water devices in the provision market with the consideration of complex factors such as the life span, investment and operating costs of the device, as well as the regulated water price by the government. Applied to Tianjin city, four scenarios of water price evolutions for a long-term perspective (from year 2011 to 2030) are considered, including BAU (Business As Usual), SP1 (Scenario of Price increase with constant annual rate), SP2 (Scenario of Price increase every four years) and SP3 (Scenario of Price increase with affordable constraint), considering many factors such as historic trends, affordability and incentives for conservation. Results show that on aggregate 2.3%, 11.0% and 18.2% of fresh water can be saved in the residential sector in scenario SP1, SP2 and SP3, respectively, compared with the BAU scenario in the year 2030. The water price signals can change the market shares of different water appliances, as well as the water end use structure of households, and ultimately improve water use efficiency. The WATAP model may potentially be a helpful tool to provide insights for policy makers on water conservation technology policy analysis and assessment.

关键词: technology selection     model optimization     water price     scenario analysis     consumer behavior    

A novel light fluctuation spectrum method for in-line particle sizing

Shouxuan QIN, Xiaoshu CAI, Li MA

《能源前沿(英文)》 2012年 第6卷 第1期   页码 89-97 doi: 10.1007/s11708-012-0176-z

摘要: This paper discusses two problems in in-line particle sizing when using light fluctuation method. First, by retrieving the ratio of particle concentrations at different time, the intensity of incident light is obtained. There exists narrow error between the calculated and pre-detected value of the intensity of incident light. Secondly, by combining spectrum analysis with Gregory’s theory, a multi-sub-size zone model is proposed, with which the relationship between the distribution of turbidity and the particle size distribution (PSD) can be established, and an algorithm developed to determine the distribution of turbidity. Experiments conducted in the laboratory indicate that the measured size distribution of pulverized coal conforms well with the imaging result.

关键词: in-line measurement     particle size distribution (PSD)     incident light intensity     particle concentration     light fluctuation    

Does oil price affect the value of firms? Evidence from Tunisian listed firms

Kaouther ZAABOUTI,Ezzeddine BEN MOHAMED,Abdelfettah BOURI

《能源前沿(英文)》 2016年 第10卷 第1期   页码 1-13 doi: 10.1007/s11708-016-0396-8

摘要: A new debate on the potential impact of oil price changes on the value of firms was initiated in this paper. Using a stochastic frontier approach, an attempt was made to derive the optimal value * of firms and calculate the value observed. Then the shortfall ( *– ) which represents the inefficiency term was explained. Starting from 19 industrial Tunisian firms listed on the Tunis Stock Exchange between 2007 and 2011, the fact that variation of oil prices can largely explain distortions in the value of firms was empirically demonstrated.

关键词: industrial Tunisian firms     oil price     value of firm     stochastic frontier approach    

Clinical significance of para-aortic lymph node dissection and prognosis in ovarian cancer

null

《医学前沿(英文)》 2014年 第8卷 第1期   页码 96-100 doi: 10.1007/s11684-014-0316-4

摘要:

Lymph node metastasis has an important effect on prognosis of patients with ovarian cancer. Moreover, the impact of para-aortic lymph node (PAN) removal on patient prognosis is still unclear. In this study, 80 patients were divided into groups A and B. Group A consisted of 30 patients who underwent PAN+ pelvic lymph node (PLN) dissection, whereas group B consisted of 50 patients who only underwent PLN dissection. Analysis of the correlation between PAN clearance and prognosis in epithelial ovarian cancer was conducted. Nineteen cases of lymph node metastasis were found in group A, among whom seven cases were positive for PAN, three cases for PLN, and nine cases for both PAN and PLN. In group B, 13 cases were positive for lymph node metastasis. Our study suggested that the metastatic rate of lymph node is 40.0%. Lymph node metastasis was significantly correlated with FIGO stage, tumor differentiation, and histological type both in groups A and B (P<0.05). In groups A and B, the three-year survival rates were 77.9% and 69.0%, and the five-year survival rates were 46.7% and 39.2%, respectively. However, the difference was not statistically significant (P>0.05). The three-year survival rates of PLN metastasis in groups A and B were 68.5% and 41.4%, and the five-year survival rates were 49.7% and 26.4%, respectively. Furthermore, PLN-positive patients who cleared PAN had significantly higher survival rate (P=0.044). In group A, the three-year survival rates of positive and negative lymph nodes were 43.5% and 72.7%, and the five-year survival rates were 27.2% and 58.5%, respectively. The difference was statistically significant (P=0.048). Cox model analysis of single factor suggested that lymph node status affected the survival rate (P<0.01), which was the death risk factor. Consequently, in ovarian carcinoma cytoreductive surgery, resection of the para-aortic lymph node, which has an important function in clinical treatment and prognosis of patients with ovarian cancer, is necessary.

关键词: ovarian cancer     para-aortic lymph node     pelvic lymph node    

Macroeconomic impacts of oil price volatility: mitigation and resilience

Zoheir EBRAHIM, Oliver R. INDERWILDI, David A. KING

《能源前沿(英文)》 2014年 第8卷 第1期   页码 9-24 doi: 10.1007/s11708-014-0303-0

摘要: Dependency on oil-derived fuels in various sectors, most notably in mobility, has left the global economy vulnerable to several macroeconomic economic side effects. Numerous studies have addressed the effect of price volatility on specific economic parameters. However, the current literature lacks a comprehensive review of the interactions between global macroeconomic performance and oil price volatility (OPV). Price volatility is intrinsic in commodity markets, but has been advancing at a faster rate in the crude oil market in comparison to other commodities over the past decade, reflecting the status of oil as the most globalised commodity. In this paper, the analytical literature review and analysis of the behavioral responses of macroeconomic agents to OPV shows that such volatility has several damaging and destabilizing macroeconomic impacts that will present a fundamental barrier to future sustainable economic growth if left unchecked. To ensure macroeconomic isolation from OPV, a combination of supply and demand-side policies have been recommended that can help to mitigate and build resilience to the economic uncertainty advanced by OPV.

关键词: conventional oil     price volatility     macroeconomy     economic stability     energy security    

Direct energy rebound effect for road transportation in China

《工程管理前沿(英文)》   页码 597-611 doi: 10.1007/s42524-023-0276-y

摘要: The enhancement of energy efficiency stands as the principal avenue for attaining energy conservation and emissions reduction objectives within the realm of road transportation. Nevertheless, it is imperative to acknowledge that these objectives may, in part or in entirety, be offset by the phenomenon known as the energy rebound effect (ERE). To quantify the long-term EREs and short-term EREs specific to China’s road transportation, this study employed panel cointegration and panel error correction models, accounting for asymmetric price effects. The findings reveal the following: The long-term EREs observed in road passenger transportation and road freight transportation range from 13% to 25% and 14% to 48%, respectively; in contrast, the short-term EREs in road passenger transportation and road freight transportation span from 36% to 41% and 3.9% to 32%, respectively. It is noteworthy that the EREs associated with road passenger transportation and road freight transportation represent a partial rebound effect, falling short of reaching the magnitude of a counterproductive backfire effect. This leads to the inference that the upsurge in energy consumption within the road transportation sector cannot be solely attributed to advancements in energy efficiency. Instead, various factors, including income levels, the scale of commodity trade, and industrial structure, exert more substantial facilitating influences. Furthermore, the escalation of fuel prices fails to dampen the demand for energy services, whether in the domain of road passenger transportation or road freight transportation. In light of these conclusions, recommendations are proffered for the formulation of energy efficiency policies pertinent to road transportation.

关键词: road transportation     direct energy rebound effect     asymmetric price effects     panel data model    

Day-ahead electricity price forecasting using back propagation neural networks and weighted least square

S. Surender REDDY,Chan-Mook JUNG,Ko Jun SEOG

《能源前沿(英文)》 2016年 第10卷 第1期   页码 105-113 doi: 10.1007/s11708-016-0393-y

摘要: This paper proposes the day-ahead electricity price forecasting using the artificial neural networks (ANN) and weighted least square (WLS) technique in the restructured electricity markets. Price forecasting is very important for online trading, e-commerce and power system operation. Forecasting the hourly locational marginal prices (LMP) in the electricity markets is a very important basis for the decision making in order to maximize the profits/benefits. The novel approach proposed in this paper for forecasting the electricity prices uses WLS technique and compares the results with the results obtained by using ANNs. To perform this price forecasting, the market knowledge is utilized to optimize the selection of input data for the electricity price forecasting tool. In this paper, price forecasting for Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) interconnection is demonstrated using the ANNs and the proposed WLS technique. The data used for this price forecasting is obtained from the PJM website. The forecasting results obtained by both methods are compared, which shows the effectiveness of the proposed forecasting approach. From the simulation results, it can be observed that the accuracy of prediction has increased in both seasons using the proposed WLS technique. Another important advantage of the proposed WLS technique is that it is not an iterative method.

关键词: day-ahead electricity markets     price forecasting     load forecasting     artificial neural networks     load serving entities    

An approach to locational marginal price based zonal congestion management in deregulated electricity

Md SARWAR,Anwar Shahzad SIDDIQUI

《能源前沿(英文)》 2016年 第10卷 第2期   页码 240-248 doi: 10.1007/s11708-016-0404-z

摘要: Congestion of transmission line is a vital issue and its management pose a technical challenge in power system deregulation. Congestion occurs in deregulated electricity market when transmission capacity is not sufficient to simultaneously accommodate all constraints of power transmission through a line. Therefore, to manage congestion, a locational marginal price (LMP) based zonal congestion management approach in a deregulated electricity market has been proposed in this paper. As LMP is an economic indicator and its difference between two buses across a transmission line provides the measure of the degree of congestion, therefore, it is efficiently and reliably used in deregulated electricity market for congestion management. This paper utilizes the difference of LMP across a transmission line to categorize various congestion zones in the system. After the identification of congestion zones, distributed generation is optimally placed in most congestion sensitive zones using LMP difference in order to manage congestion. The performance of the proposed methodology has been tested on the IEEE 14-bus system and IEEE 57-bus system.

关键词: locational marginal price (LMP)     distributed generation     pool market     deregulated electricity market     congestion management    

Spatial embedded reinforcement of 20-node block element for analysis PC bridges

LONG Peiheng, DU Xianting, CHEN Weizhen

《结构与土木工程前沿(英文)》 2008年 第2卷 第3期   页码 274-280 doi: 10.1007/s11709-008-0039-1

摘要: The formula for the contribution of prestressed reinforcement on embedded reinforcement element is derived according to the mechanical behavior of PC bridges and the foundational principle of finite element method. Mechanical concept is definite and examples validate the calculation results. Reinforcement element model allows generating a finite element mesh without taking into consideration the layout of reinforcements. Furthermore, the prestressing tendon may pass through the concrete elements in an arbitrary manner. It is an effective approach that the no-node loads are diverted from the tendons to the adjacent concrete elements. A useful arithmetic analysis of the spatial curved tendon PC Bridges is provided.

关键词: arithmetic analysis     calculation     prestressed reinforcement     mechanical     arbitrary    

Prognostic value of the 21-gene recurrence score in ER-positive, HER2-negative, node-positive breastcancer was similar in node-negative diseases: a single-center study of 800 patients

Jiayi Wu, Weiqi Gao, Xiaosong Chen, Chunxiao Fei, Lin Lin, Weiguo Chen, Ou Huang, Siji Zhu, Jianrong He, Yafen Li, Li Zhu, Kunwei Shen

《医学前沿(英文)》 2021年 第15卷 第4期   页码 621-628 doi: 10.1007/s11684-020-0738-0

摘要: Multi-gene assays have emerged as crucial tools for risk stratification in early-stage breast cancer. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic significance of the 21-gene recurrence score (RS) in Chinese patients with pN0-1, estrogen receptor-positive (ER ), human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative (HER2 ) breast cancer. Among 800 patients recruited between 2009 and 2016, the median RS was 24 (0–69), with 27.4%, 46.8%, and 25.9% patients classified into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups. Cox regression analysis demonstrated that the high-risk category was associated with significantly higher odds of invasive disease-free survival (IDFS) and distant disease-free survival (DDFS) events compared with the low-risk category (IDFS: HR= 2.450, 95% CI 1.017–5.902, = 0.046; DDFS: HR= 2.829, 95% CI 1.013–7.901, = 0.047). No significant association between RS category and overall survival (OS) was found (intermediate vs. low: HR= 1.244, 95% CI 0.292–5.297, = 0.768; high vs. low: HR= 2.933, 95% CI 0.759–11.327, = 0.119). RS, as a continuous variable, was a highly significant predictor for IDFS (HR= 1.028, 95% CI 1.010–1.047, = 0.002), DDFS (HR= 1.030, 95% CI 1.010–1.051, = 0.003), and OS (HR= 1.034, 95% CI 1.007–1.063, = 0.014). Our findings suggested that RS may predict IDFS in Chinese patients with ER /HER2 breast cancer with N0 or N1 disease.

关键词: early breast cancer     21-gene assay     recurrence score     prognosis    

基于虚拟节点道路网络模型的设计及实现

朱庄生,王庆,万德钧

《中国工程科学》 2009年 第11卷 第8期   页码 83-87

摘要:

利用传统的基于节点连接的道路网络模型来表达真实世界中的道路网络,其存在的缺陷越来越突出,大大降低了导航系统的鲁棒性。为了消除这些缺陷,首次提出一个新的道路网络模型,即基于虚拟节点连接的道路网络模型,其虚拟节点是汇交路段的各个端点所围成的区域,具有真实道路路口的形状,与传统模型相比,该模型更能表达真实世界道路网络中的交通流,所以它能更好地满足地图匹配理论要求。另外,该模型能很好的表达真实道路路口参数,所以它在交通规划,交通管理和交通流模拟中都有着十分广阔的应用前景。

关键词: 交通工程     虚拟节点     道路网络模型     地图匹配     交通规划    

基于同步波动原理的抗冲蚀弹性涂层设计

郭源君,肖华林,徐大清,李文斌

《中国工程科学》 2008年 第10卷 第9期   页码 60-63

摘要:

基于过流面冲蚀波纹形貌特征与流体边界层扰动波参数的对应关系,提出了实现弹性涂层边壁与边界层扰动波的同步波动,从而变边壁被动承受粒子冲击为主动回避与粒子的碰撞的抗冲蚀设计思想;分析了实现弹性涂层边壁与边界层扰动波同步波动的条件,并由此确定出弹性涂层的材料常数。

关键词: 冲蚀     边界层     弹性边壁     弹性涂层     同步波动    

标题 作者 时间 类型 操作

Optimal portfolio design of energy storage devices with financial and physical right market

期刊论文

Can the Shanghai LNG Price Index indicate Chinese market?An econometric investigation using price discovery theory

Yeli ZENG, Cong DONG, Mikael HÖÖK, Jinhua SUN, Danyang SHI

期刊论文

Power fluctuation and power loss of wind turbines due to wind shear and tower shadow

Binrong WEN, Sha WEI, Kexiang WEI, Wenxian YANG, Zhike PENG, Fulei CHU

期刊论文

Exploring price effects on the residential water conservation technology diffusion process: a case study

Junying CHU, Hao WANG, Can WANG

期刊论文

A novel light fluctuation spectrum method for in-line particle sizing

Shouxuan QIN, Xiaoshu CAI, Li MA

期刊论文

Does oil price affect the value of firms? Evidence from Tunisian listed firms

Kaouther ZAABOUTI,Ezzeddine BEN MOHAMED,Abdelfettah BOURI

期刊论文

Clinical significance of para-aortic lymph node dissection and prognosis in ovarian cancer

null

期刊论文

Macroeconomic impacts of oil price volatility: mitigation and resilience

Zoheir EBRAHIM, Oliver R. INDERWILDI, David A. KING

期刊论文

Direct energy rebound effect for road transportation in China

期刊论文

Day-ahead electricity price forecasting using back propagation neural networks and weighted least square

S. Surender REDDY,Chan-Mook JUNG,Ko Jun SEOG

期刊论文

An approach to locational marginal price based zonal congestion management in deregulated electricity

Md SARWAR,Anwar Shahzad SIDDIQUI

期刊论文

Spatial embedded reinforcement of 20-node block element for analysis PC bridges

LONG Peiheng, DU Xianting, CHEN Weizhen

期刊论文

Prognostic value of the 21-gene recurrence score in ER-positive, HER2-negative, node-positive breastcancer was similar in node-negative diseases: a single-center study of 800 patients

Jiayi Wu, Weiqi Gao, Xiaosong Chen, Chunxiao Fei, Lin Lin, Weiguo Chen, Ou Huang, Siji Zhu, Jianrong He, Yafen Li, Li Zhu, Kunwei Shen

期刊论文

基于虚拟节点道路网络模型的设计及实现

朱庄生,王庆,万德钧

期刊论文

基于同步波动原理的抗冲蚀弹性涂层设计

郭源君,肖华林,徐大清,李文斌

期刊论文